09.11.201800:58 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EURUSD: the European Commission has revised its forecasts for the worse. The Fed's decision will not affect the markets

Long-term review

The European currency is gradually returning to a downtrend, which may be formed in the near future. More and more market participants expect that the Federal Reserve will not delay the increase in interest rates, which will only strengthen the position of the US dollar against a number of world currencies.

Today's report from the European Commission carried a lot of risks for the future of the eurozone. The revision of the forecast in the direction of slowing economic growth had a negative impact on the exchange rate of the European currency. The European Commission published the last forecast in July of this year.

According to the data, the European Commission left the forecast of economic growth in the eurozone in 2018 at 2.1%, but the forecast of GDP growth in the eurozone in 2019 was lowered to 1.9% from 2.0%. Economic growth is projected to slow to 1.7% by 2020.

The revision of the forecast is directly related to new risk factors, which now include the overheating of the US economy and a more rapid increase in the Fed rate. We should not forget about tensions in trade relations, rising energy prices and political uncertainty.

It is important to note that the European Commission lowered the forecast for German GDP growth in 2018 to 1.7% from 1.9%, which is a very bad sign.

Inflation will remain within the target levels of the European Central Bank. This conclusion was reached by the economists of the European Commission, who predict the consumer price index in the eurozone in 2018 at 1.8% against the previous forecast of 1.7%. Inflation is also expected to rise to 1.8% in 2019 against the previous forecast of 1.7%.

Good inflation rates could spur the European Central Bank to change its monetary policy next year.

Economists also expect unemployment in the eurozone at 8.4% in 2018 and 7.9% in 2019. The forecast remained unchanged compared to July. As for the eurozone budget deficit, the European Commission believes that it will be at 0.6% in 2018 against the previous forecast of 0.7%. However, significant changes can begin in 2019, when Italy will increase its budget deficit.

As for the fundamental data, today's report on Germany's foreign trade balance was disappointing.

Thus, the positive balance of Germany's foreign trade in September this year amounted to 17.6 billion euros against 18.2 billion in August. Economists had expected the balance to rise to 18.3 billion euros. The fall was due to German exports, which fell by 0.8% in September this year, while imports fell by only 0.4%. The current account surplus of the German balance of payments in September amounted to 21.1 billion euros.

Exchange Rates 09.11.2018 analysis

All the attention of traders in the afternoon will be focused on the decision of the Federal Reserve on interest rates, which are likely to remain unchanged. Economists also do not expect major changes in the Fed's statement, which will be released immediately after the decision on rates.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert
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