At the end of last week, there was a violation of the upward impulse. All growth can be considered complete and the priority direction of work is again falling. Today there is a movement with a high probability of consolidation below the weekly control zone.
Today's fall continues the downward impulse movement, which completely changes the situation. The ascending medium-term model is complete and any growth of the pair should be taken as a correction and look for favorable prices for the sale of the instrument. Today's close below the weekly CP of 1.2910-1.2883 will allow speaking about the high probability of a return to the October minimum. Sales from current grades are no longer profitable, hence, a correctional growth is needed, from which it will be possible to enter a short position.
Is it important to understand that the price gap formed with today's discovery? It can be ignored with a further decline. Thus, the level of sales of the instrument must be adjusted after changes in the local minimum of the week.
For the formation of a reversal pattern, it will be necessary to absorb the current fall, which is more than the daily average. Therefore, the probability of a reversal is less than 30%, which makes purchases unprofitable. Considering long trades does not make sense as long as the pair is trading below a control zone of 1.2971-1.2958. At the moment, sales are already unprofitable, as the pair has gone through the day and increases the likelihood of a corrective movement.
The daytime CP is the daytime control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market that change several times a year.
The weekly CP is the weekly control zone. The zone formed by marks from important futures market which change several times a year.
The monthly CP is the monthly control zone. The zone is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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