26.02.2019 09:53 AM
EUR and GBP: Fed rates are at the lower limit of the neutral range. The pound is growing on rumors of a deferment of Brexit

The euro remained to be traded in a narrow range, and the British pound updated the next monthly highs after the next rumors about the postponement of Brexit.

The absence of important statistics did not prevent euro buyers from maintaining their positions in the area of 1.1365 large resistance level, which last week did not manage to get outside.

Data on stocks of wholesale companies, which rose in December, did not lead to changes in the market. According to a report by the US Department of Commerce, inventories in the wholesale trade in December 2018 increased by 1.1% compared with the previous month. Economists had expected growth of 0.4%. Compared to the same period of the previous year, stocks rose by 7.3%.

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The index of national activity of the Fed Chicago declined in January. The fall was due to a decline in industrial production, as well as personal consumption.

According to the data, the index fell to -0.43 points in January against 0.05 points in December. A decrease in the index below zero indicates that the growth of the economy is below average. Production indicators fell in January to -0.45 points from 0.08 points in December.

Yesterday a number of speeches by representatives of the Federal Reserve System also took place. The most interesting statements were made by the Governor of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Raphael Bostic. Bostic said he expects one rate increase this year and one in 2020, as the Fed rate is close and is at the lower limit of the neutral range.

He predicts that there is still room to raise rates, but the manager would prefer that the Fed does not take any incentive position.

As for inflation, in his opinion, it does not pose a danger, as it is below the Fed's target of 2%, however, the Fed representative drew attention to some signs of excessive wage growth against the background of a strong labor market.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it remained unchanged.

The main task of buyers of risky assets is to break through the maximum of last week and go beyond the level of 1.1370, which is the upper limit of the side channel. Only this will allow us to expect a larger increase in the euro with a test high in the region of 1.1400 and 1.1440. In the case of a bearish scenario, and it is also likely, under the current market conditions, a breakthrough in support of 1.1325 may lead to an immediate sale of EURUSD and an update of 1.1280 and 1.1240 lows.

Oil prices fell slightly after yesterday, US President Donald Trump once again tried to influence OPEC's oil policy, saying oil prices were climbing too high. He urged OPEC to relax and not rush, because, in his opinion, the world does not need too high oil prices.

The British pound yesterday made its way above the next monthly highs against the background of the next rumors that Prime Minister Theresa May may be planning to shift Brexit from March 29 to a later date. Statements from Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, the intention to support the second Brexit referendum, also supported the British pound in the afternoon.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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