08.03.2019 11:52 AM
EUR / USD. March 8. The trading system. "Regression Channels". The ECB meeting is over. All focus on NonFarm Payrolls

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -181.2993

The EUR / USD currency pair resumed its downward movement on Friday, March 8, after the announcement of the ECB meeting and press conference. The main outcomes of the meetings were the reduction of inflation and GDP forecasts, the announcement of the launch of the LTRO program for long-term lending to banks, and the postponement of the completion of the period of low rates to at least the end of 2019. In general, the meeting of the regulator is absolutely disastrous for the euro currency, which only confirms the concerns of market participants about the recession in the eurozone. This is also evident from macroeconomic indicators, which are much more frustrating than encouraging. Meanwhile, the euro made its way through the important support area of 1.1250 - 1.1290, which is tested for strength at least five times. Now for the euro, the road is open down to price parity with the US dollar. On the last trading day of the week in the United States, the publishing of changes in average wages, unemployment and new jobs created outside the agricultural sector are scheduled. These reports can greatly affect the movement of the pair, the question is which of the currencies will they help? It will depend on which way real values differ from forecasts. If the reports are strong, then the US dollar can close the week with a huge advantage.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1169

S2 - 1.1108

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1230

R2 - 1.1292

R3 - 1.1353

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair has resumed its downward movement. Thus, before the beginning of the upward correction, which the Heikin Ashi indicator will signal, short positions with targets of 1.1169 and 1.1108 are relevant.

Buy positions can be viewed after the price is fixed above the moving average line. In this case, the tendency for the instrument to change to ascending again, and the first target for the long positions will be 1.1353.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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