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02.05.2019 10:51 AM
EUR/USD. May 2. The trading system "Regression Channels". The results of the Fed meeting: nothing new

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

The upper linear regression channel: direction - down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction - down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) - up.

CCI: 115.9561

Yesterday was a very controversial day for the US currency. On the one hand, there were positive moments. For example, the report on changes in the number of employees in the private sector, which greatly exceeded the forecast. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of Markit was also higher than market expectations. On the other hand, the more important index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of ISM was significantly worse than market expectations (52.8 against the forecast of 55.0). In the evening, the Fed announced the absence of any changes in monetary policy (very predictable), once again declared inflation below the target level of 2.0%, while noting that the labor market continues to grow at a steady pace, as well as economic activity. Thus, in general, the information received from the Fed is neutral. The US dollar rushed down last night, but very quickly stopped its strengthening, thus maintaining a short-term upward trend in the pair. Today, neither the EU nor the US will have any important publications. Therefore, we will be able to find out whether the bears have enough strength to overcome the moving average line and return to the downward trend. According to the general fundamental picture, it should be enough. However, until the overcoming of the moving has not happened, the upward movement is more preferable.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1169

S2 - 1.1108

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1230

R2 - 1.1292

R3 - 1.1353

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair is adjusted against the upward trend. Long positions remain relevant at the moment, with the target of 1.1292, but you should wait until the current round of correction is completed, if it does not develop into a downward movement.

It is recommended to open sell orders no earlier than fixing the pair below the moving with targets at 1.1169 and 1.1108. In this case, the pair will return to a downward trend.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel is the violet lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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