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Buyers of the European currency ignored the data on the growth of the current account surplus of the eurozone balance of payments, while the report on producer prices in Germany did not go unnoticed.


The weakness of the European currency, given the likely change in the monetary policy rate of the European Central Bank, is obvious, and any negative data only add confidence to traders that the European regulator may not lower rates at the meeting in July, but will definitely change the tone of its statements and adjust forecasts.

As noted above, the German producer price index fell sharply in June of this year, falling 0.4% compared to May, when there was a decrease of only 0.1%. Compared to the same period in 2018, prices increased by only 1.2%.

Exchange Rates 19.07.2019 analysis

Economists had forecast a decline in producer prices of only 0.1% and an increase of 1.5%, respectively.

The report on the growth of the current account surplus of the eurozone balance of payments did not allow the European currency to resume its growth against the US dollar. According to the European Central Bank, the balance rose to 30 billion euros from 22 billion euros in April this year, and the total surplus for the 12 months to May amounted to 323 billion euros, which is 2.8% of eurozone GDP. Last year, the aggregate surplus was slightly higher at 392 billion euros.

The demand for the euro is limited and the main reason for this is the likely decrease in interest rates in the eurozone and the launch of the asset buyback program. Next week, the ECB will announce a change in the conditions in monetary policy, but it is more likely that the European regulator will take measures to stimulate the economy not earlier than September this year. During the July meeting, the interest rate forecasts for the next few years will be precisely revised, which will also have a negative impact on the positions of the European currency.

It is expected that the planned lowering of the deposit rate and the launch of the next round of asset purchases will be announced.

Let me remind you that during the last meeting, the ECB stated that the key interest rates will remain at current levels, at least until mid-2020.

Today, a number of speeches by representatives of the Federal Reserve System are planned, which, apparently, will talk about the prospects of interest rates in the United States.

Yesterday, the Fed-New York hastened to say that Williams's speech should not be regarded as a specific signal about the future monetary policy, and, as we remember, after his words, the US dollar fell sharply.

Exchange Rates 19.07.2019 analysis

Today, the speech of the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis James Bullard, who said that the reduction of the key rate by a quarter of a percentage point at the moment would be appropriate. He also added that he would study the arguments in favor of a half-point rate cut, but the current situation does not require a more significant rate cut.

In the afternoon, FOMC member Eric Rosengren will speak.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, while sellers of risky assets are coping with their task, pushing the euro gradually down to the support area of 1.1200.


The British pound is trying to continue its growth after a slight downward correction, which occurred on the data on the growth of borrowings of the UK public sector.

As indicated in the report, the net borrowing of the UK public sector in June this year increased by 7.2 billion pounds against 3.3 billion pounds a year ago. Economists had expected growth of only 3.9 billion pounds. The net need for public sector funds in the UK in June increased by 1.3 billion pounds against 0.7 billion pounds a year ago.

The demand for the pound remains after yesterday's statements of Michel Barnier, who acts as a negotiator for Brexit from the European Union. During his speech, he said that the EU is open to an alternative proposal for the North Irish border, which is still the main problem that trade partners cannot cope with.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Performed by Eder Anderson,
Analytical expert
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