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Exchange Rates 16.08.2019 analysis

Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways.

CCI: 90.7831

The political chaos in Britain with the advent of Boris Johnson did not weaken. Literally a month after Johnson's appointment, a vote of no confidence is on the agenda. This vote wants to initiate the leader of the opposition party, Jeremy Corbyn, to protect the UK from disordered Brexit, which according to many experts, economists and analysts led by the Chairman of the British regulator Mark Carney believe that such a scenario would be destructive to the country's economy. However, political laurels do not allow Johnson to sleep at night. He is determined to withdraw the country from the EU on October 31 and is not too worried about how to raise the economy of the Kingdom from its knees in the next 5-10 years. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has announced a "major and fantastic" trade deal with the UK. According to Trump, he already had the honor of having a conversation with Johnson and is going to hold another. Previously, Joe Bolton, US national security adviser, declared that the United States fully supports the "tough" "divorce", if that was what the UK government wanted. Well, a trade deal will be signed after Brexit, but for now, work in this direction may begin at the next G-7 meeting. The US president also said that he considers Great Britain to be one of the closest allies and partners, therefore, "we need to do much more business with it." Unfortunately, the British pound reacts poorly to the seemingly optimistic news about the trade deal with America. But it is constantly in the focus of Brexit. But there are no specific changes in the procedure of Britain's exit from the European Union. We can only wait for the beginning of September when the Parliament will come out of vacation and new information on this topic will begin to arrive. The pound/dollar pair barely fixed above the moving average, but it can resume its decline today. Macroeconomic reports are not expected from the UK today.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2085

S2 – 1.2054

S3 – 1.2024

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2115

R2 – 1.2146

R3 – 1.2177

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair has fixed below the moving average line, which indicates the readiness of the bears to reactivate and start selling the pound sterling. Therefore, sell orders for the pound/dollar pair are now relevant again with targets at 1.2024 and 1.1993.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Haiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Performed by Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2019
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