Analysis of Friday deals:
30M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The GBP/USD pair moved in different directions on the 30-minute timeframe last Friday. In the morning - up, in the afternoon - down. The upward movement ended around 1.3891, which was then corrected to 1.3887. One way or another, traders did not surpass this level, so a correction began. Recall that earlier, a couple of days ago, the pair crossed the downward trend line, so formally we now have an upward trend. However, in the past few weeks, the pound/dollar pair has been moving between the levels of 1.3729 and 1.3887, that is, in a 160-point horizontal channel. Thus, it is possible that the next round of strengthening ended around 1.3887 on Friday. It should also be noted that quite important reports were published in the UK on this day. The data on GDP and industrial production for July could not but find their reflection on the chart of the currency pair. But the most interesting thing is that after their publication, the British currency rose, although the GDP report turned out to be much weaker than forecasts, and the industrial production report was much stronger than forecasts. However, the GDP report is considered more important, so in any case, either they should have neutralized each other, or the pound should have fallen. Instead, we saw a rise in the British currency in the morning and a fall in the afternoon.
5M chart of the GBP/USD pair
Three signals were generated on the 5-minute timeframe last Friday, and two levels were removed - 1.3816 and 1.3874. Thus, it was possible and necessary to trade on Friday. The first buy signal was formed immediately after the publication of British reports (ticked). The price surpassed the level of 1.3863, so a long position should have been opened at this point. Unfortunately, the price did not manage to go up 40 points required for the minimum Take Profit, as well as to reach the nearest target level of 1.3891. Moreover, the pair did not go up even 20 points, so that newbies had the opportunity, according to our advice, to set Stop Loss to breakeven. As a result, the quotes dropped back to the level of 1.3863 and settled below it. Therefore, a long position should have been closed at a loss of 14 points and a short position should be opened at that moment. Quotes reached the closest level of 1.3830 only at the close of the market, so novice traders, most likely, closed a long position a little earlier. In any case, 15 points of profit on the second trade could be obtained, so the total profit of the day was 0.
How to trade on Monday:
The pair is trying to maintain a new upward trend on the 30-minute timeframe, but for the second time in the past few days it has not been able to overcome the level of 1.3887. However, volatility has slightly increased, so the signals from the MACD indicator can now be considered again. This requires the indicator to rise to the zero level and cross it. On the 5-minute timeframe, the important levels are 1.3753, 1.3796, 1.3830, 1.3863, 1.3891. We recommend trading with them. The price can bounce off them or overcome them. As before, we set Take Profit at a distance of 40-50 points. At the 5M TF, you can use all the nearest levels as targets, but then you need to take profit, taking into account the strength of the movement. When passing 20 points in the right direction, we recommend setting Stop Loss to breakeven. There are no major publications or events scheduled for Monday in the UK and US. Thus, novice traders will have to trade tomorrow using pure technique.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the EUR/USD review.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
