Analysis of previous deals:
30M chart of the GBP/USD pair
The GBP/USD pair was trading quite actively on Monday after an absolutely passive Friday. It was active against the background of Friday, when only 29 points were passed from the low to the high. On Monday, it is almost twice as much, which is still very little, but not for holidays. Most importantly, the markets keep finding reasons to buy the British currency over and over again, although at this time, for obvious reasons, there are no macroeconomic reports or fundamental background. Nevertheless, at the most unexpected time, the pound shows a steady rise against the US dollar. The upward trend line continues to be relevant, therefore, before consolidating below it, only long positions should be considered on the 30-minute timeframe. Rebounds from the designated levels, as well as from the trend line, can be used as signals. However, today the pair failed to settle above the level of 1.3435, from which it had already bounced a couple of days ago. Therefore, a new round of corrective movement may begin now.
5M chart of the GBP/USD pair
On the 5-minute timeframe, the movement of the pound/dollar pair on Monday was quite interesting. At least, several trading signals were generated that could and should have been worked out. After all, the pound shows at least some movement during the holidays. It should be noted right away that the level of 1.3393, which is the previous trading day's low, is a very controversial level. Simply because the pair did not have a clear low on Friday. Nevertheless, the level itself formed after several price rebounds from it. Moreover, the last two bounces formed on Monday night. Thus, when the pair bounced off the level of 1.3393 thrice in the European trading session, these rebounds could be regarded as buy signals. For the first time, the price went up more than 15 points, so Stop Loss had to be set at breakeven. However, the price was unable to continue its upward movement and returned to 1.3393 to bounce off it again. Novice traders had to open positions on the second buy signal. Subsequently, the pair rose to the level of 1.3435, from which it also bounced, so the long position was closed at 20 points profit. Following the same signal, one should have opened short positions with the 1.3393 target, but the pair went down again by a little more than 15 points, so the Stop Loss should have been set at breakeven. And therefore, the Stop Loss deal was eventually closed, as the price returned to the level of 1.3435. As a result, the day ended with a profit of 20 points.
How to trade on Tuesday:
At this time, the upward trend is maintained on the 30-minute timeframe. Therefore, before the price settles below the trend line, preference should be given to long positions. Tomorrow the pair may slightly correct, as it was not possible to overcome the level of 1.3435 even on the second attempt. The important levels on the 5-minute timeframe are 1.3342, 1.3366, 1.3393, 1.3435, 1.3470, 1.3508. We recommend trading on them on Tuesday. From them the price can bounce or overcome. As before, we set Take Profit at a distance of 40-50 points. At the 5M TF, you can use all the nearest levels as targets, but then you need to take profit, taking into account the strength of the movement. When passing 20 points in the right direction, we recommend setting Stop Loss to breakeven. No interesting report in Great Britain and America on December 28, not a single important event planned, therefore, newcomers will again have to trade exclusively on "technique".
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the US one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
