The GBP/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Monday and fell 80 points on the day when no reports were published and there were no fundamental events. Thus, the euro and the pound in recent days show a perfect correlation with each other and move in the same direction. It is interesting that last week they grew synchronously after the release of the US inflation report. However, literally the next day after this event, which made everyone on the market nervous, the US dollar started to rise, which continues to this day. We still believe that the fundamentals remain negative for the euro and pound, so what we have seen in the last month is a simple correction within a long-term downward trend. The euro rose by 400 points, and the pound by 500. This is enough to resume the downward march.
The situation with trading signals for the GBP/USD pair was a little worse yesterday, but still several good market entry points were formed. First, the price overcame the level of 1.2106 at the very beginning of the European trading session, after which it managed to go down 40 points. However, it failed to reach the level of 1.2033 and returned to 1.2106. This signal can be considered false, and the deal could be closed by Stop Loss at breakeven. This was followed by two more rebounds from the level of 1.2106, after which the pair went down again 40 points. Toward evening, this deal should have been closed manually at a profit of 30-40 points.
The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report on the British pound has finally impressed. During the week, the non-commercial group opened 12,900 long positions and closed 9,000 short positions. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders immediately increased by 21,900. This is quite a strong change for the pound. However, the mood of the big players still remains "pronounced bearish", which is clearly seen in the second indicator in the chart above (purple bars below zero = bearish mood). To be fair, in recent months the net position of the non-commercial group has been constantly growing, but the pound shows only a very weak tendency to increase. The growth of the net position and the growth of the pound itself are now so weak (if we talk globally), it's hard to draw a conclusion about the beginning of a new upward trend. It is rather difficult to call the current growth even a "correction". We also said that the COT reports do not take into account the demand for the dollar, which is likely to remain very high right now. Therefore, for the British currency to appreciate, the demand for it must rise faster and stronger than the demand for the dollar. And on the basis of what factors is the demand for the pound growing now? Traders have already been hard at work ignoring strong US data and a 0.75% Fed tightening in recent weeks. The pound could already go again to conquer 2-year lows.
The non-commercial group now has a total of 76,000 short positions and 42,000 long positions open. The net position will have to show growth for a long time to at least equalize these figures.
We recommend to familiarize yourself with:
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. August 16. European inflation and GDP this week will show how close the European economy is to recession.
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. August 16. The pound seems to have exhausted all its growth potential.
Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on August 16. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions.
The pair failed to consolidate above the level of 1.2259 and fell to the level of 1.2033 on the hourly timeframe, from which the last round of growth began. Also, the price managed to overcome the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, so now the probability of further downward movement is very high. Or the pair will go into a flat state. However, there will be important macroeconomic statistics this week in the UK so we do not think that a flat will begin. We highlight the following important levels for August 16: 1.1874, 1.1974, 1.2033, 1.2106, 1.2185, 1.2259, 1.2342. Senkou Span B (1.2147) and Kijun-sen (1.2155) lines can also be sources of signals. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. The Stop Loss level is recommended to be set to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. The chart also contains support and resistance levels that can be used to take profits on trades. There is nothing interesting on the US calendar of events for Tuesday, but today the unemployment rate and the change in average wages will be released in the UK. This is not the kind of data that can provoke a strong reaction of the market, but still several tens of points of the pair can go under the influence of these reports.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.