Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair
Although the test of 1.0416, which occurred when the MACD line was just starting to move below zero, kicked off a sell signal, euro fell by only 15 pips, leading to losses. Buying at 1.0455 was also not good because the MACD line was up above zero that time. Only the sell-offs from 1.0515 in the afternoon produced a good result, that is, an over 30 pips price decrease, which offset the losses in the morning.
Very weak manufacturing activity in the eurozone led to a sell signal, which turned out wrong and ushered in losses. Then, in the afternoon, similar weak manufacturing data in the US caused a sharp fall in dollar, continuing the bullish trend in EUR/USD.
Germany's trade balance figures are expected today, as well as the Eurozone producer price index. If both data indicate that inflation is falling, euro could halt growth, but it will not change the current trend. In the afternoon, the US will release reports on the unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls, which could make dollar dip again. Average hourly wage and the labor force participation rate will also have an impact on the market, as will the speech of FOMC member Charles Evans. If the labor market data comes out much better than expected, the dollar will rise, but it will not last very long.
For long positions:
Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.0549 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0600. Growth could occur after a weak US labor market report. But remember that when buying, the MACD line should be above zero or is starting to rise from it.
Euro can also be bought at 1.0513, however, the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0549 and 1.0600.
For short positions:
Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.0513 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0471. Pressure will return if statistics in the Euro area are weaker than expected. But take note that when selling, the MACD line should be below zero or is starting to move down from it.
Euro can also be sold at 1.0549, however, the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0513 and 1.0471.
What's on the chart:
The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.
The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.
MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.