30.01.2023 10:25 AM
EURUSD: Expecting surprises

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The euro has been in a narrow range below 1.0900 since January 23. Consolidation under the resistance line on the way up.

Technically, this is preparation for a breakthrough to the upside.

Fundamentals: the Federal Reserve's rate decision will be released on Wednesday, February 1, expect a +0.25% increase.

Immediately after that the European Central Bank's decision will be announced on Thursday and the expectation is that the rate will remain unchanged.

The NonFarm Payrolls report are due on Friday.

What will happen to the euro? Objectively, if the ECB refuses to continue its rate hike and raises the dollar rate, it would be logical to see the euro fall. However, optimism from the improving prospects of the EU economy when the ECB refuses to raise rates might allow the euro to show new highs up to 1.1000 or somewhat higher.

In my opinion, the euro could sharply fall from the current levels and after a quick rise to 1.1000-1.1080.

Jozef Kovach,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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