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28.03.2023 09:09 AM
Analysis and trading tips for EUR/USD on March 28

Analysis of transactions and tips for trading EUR/USD

The pair tested 1.0758 at a time when the MACD line was already far from zero, limiting the downside potential of the pair. Sometime later, there was another test, but entering the market to sell was also impossible. No other signal appeared for the rest of the day.

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Hawkish statements from the ECB kept euro on track, especially after good data on business environment, present situation and economic expectations from Germany. Today, ECB board members Christine Lagarde and Joachim Nagel are scheduled to speak again, and an aggressive tone will most likely be in the favor of buyers. Upcoming US data in the afternoon could fuel the situation as a decline in consumer confidence will push demand further up, resulting in another rise in EUR/USD. The Richmond Fed manufacturing index will be of little interest.

For long positions:

Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.0830 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0859. Growth is possible, but it will only be after hawkish comments from the ECB.

When buying, traders should make sure that the MACD line is above zero or is starting to rise from it. Euro can also be bought at 1.0806, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0830 and 1.0859.

For short positions:

Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.0806 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0781. Pressure will return if there is no bullish activity around the daily high. Dovish rhetoric from the ECB wil also prompt a price decline.

When selling, traders should make sure that the MACD line is under zero or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 1.0830, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0806 and 1.0781.

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What's on the chart:

The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.

The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.

MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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