05.06.2023 04:31 AM
What events may affect market sentiment on June 5? Analysis of fundamental data for novice traders

Analysis of macroeconomic reports:

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There will be limited macro data on Monday, but the fact that there will be some is already a good sign. Mondays often lack both fundamental news and economic data, which negatively affects the nature of movements and volatility. On Monday, Services PMIs will be published in the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States. We cannot say that these are important data, especially since they will be the second estimates for May. In other words, the market is already familiar with the preliminary estimates. The PMI in the UK and the ISM index in the US can be considered somewhat important. However, unexpected values or deviations from forecasts are necessary to trigger a market reaction. Without such influence, there won't be much impact on traders' sentiment.

Analysis of fundamental events:

No significant fundamental events are scheduled for Monday. Both currency pairs corrected downwards on Friday, but the short-term uptrends persist. However, in the medium-term, it is more likely for the pairs to fall. We believe it is advisable to pay attention to higher charts at the moment.

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General conclusions:

Monday will have few important events, but some of the reports may influence market sentiment and consequently affect the movement of major currency pairs. It is crucial to understand the medium-term direction of the euro and the pound this week. As we have mentioned before, a short-term uptrend has formed, but a downtrend still persists in the longer term. Therefore, the battle between bulls and bears this week will not only be interesting but also significant.

Basic trading rules:

1) The strength of the signal depends on the time period during which the signal was formed (a rebound or a break). The shorter this period, the stronger the signal.

2) If two or more trades were opened at some level following false signals, i.e. those signals that did not lead the price to Take Profit level or the nearest target levels, then any consequent signals near this level should be ignored.

3) During the flat trend, any currency pair may form a lot of false signals or do not produce any signals at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.

4) Trades are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one when all deals should be closed manually.

5) We can pay attention to the MACD signals in the 30M time frame only if there is good volatility and a definite trend confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.

6) If two key levels are too close to each other (about 5-15 pips), then this is a support or resistance area.

How to read charts:

Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.

Red lines are channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show which direction is better to trade.

MACD indicator (14,22,3) is a histogram and a signal line showing when it is better to enter the market when they cross. This indicator is better to be used in combination with trend channels or trend lines.

Important speeches and reports that are always reflected in the economic calendars can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.

Beginners should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a reliable strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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