22.09.2023 03:15 PM
GBP/USD dynamics scenarios on September 22, 2023

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GBP/USD continues to trade downward, deepening its move after breaking through the key support level of 1.2480 (200 EMA on the daily chart) into the zone of medium-term and long-term bearish markets.

The fresh British macro data released this morning served as another "fly in the ointment" for market participants betting on the pound's strength.

S&P Global Market Intelligence noted that the PMI index data indicating a sharp drop in production volumes corresponds to a GDP contraction of more than -0.4% on a quarterly basis, and the widespread decline is gaining momentum, providing little hope for a quick improvement.

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After the Bank of England meeting concluded on Thursday, GBP/USD tested the 1.2232 mark. This is the lowest level since the end of March, and today, GBP/USD approached it again after the publication of British PMI data.

A break below this level could signal further decline for GBP/USD and open up new short positions with targets near local support levels at 1.1920, 1.1900, and 1.1820.

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In an alternative scenario, after breaking through the key resistance levels of 1.2480 and 1.2520 (144 EMA on the daily chart), the price will return to the zone of the medium-term bullish market for GBP/USD, and after breaking through the key resistance level of 1.2770 (200 EMA on the weekly chart), it will enter the zone of the long-term bullish market.

The first signal for resuming purchases here could be a rise above the local resistance level of 1.2320, with confirmation being the break of the important short-term resistance level of 1.2390 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart).

Support levels: 1.2230, 1.2200, 1.2100, 1.2000, 1.1920, 1.1900, 1.1820

Resistance levels: 1.2320, 1.2390, 1.2445, 1.2480, 1.2525, 1.2550, 1.2580, 1.2650, 1.2770, 1.2800, 1.2900, 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3140, 1.3200

Jurij Tolin,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2023
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