Yesterday the dollar was again the center of attention, while the euro and the pound spent most of the day on the defensive. The pound opened well: comments from Bank of England official Dave Ramsden about a possible earlier rate hike gave the currency a brief upward impulse. But that position could not be held — toward the evening, similarly hawkish rhetoric came from Federal Reserve representatives and the market immediately switched its focus back to the dollar. The euro received no support in this story: Christine Lagarde's firm wording had already been priced in, so her comments passed almost unnoticed. Trump's decision to reject Iran's proposed truce added fuel to the fire, sending oil higher and lifting demand for the dollar as a safe-haven amid rising geopolitical tension. In sum, both the euro and the pound ceded ground to the dollar across most fronts yesterday.

Today the focus is again on words rather than data. We await speeches by Fed and BoE officials, and if the tone resembles yesterday's, the dollar may continue to gain against both European currencies. The US consumer-confidence index will also be released today. This survey shows how confident Americans feel about their incomes and whether they are willing to spend rather than hoard. If consumers are optimistic, that is typically read as a sign of a strong economy and can give the dollar an additional argument versus the euro and the pound. A weak reading, by contrast, would reduce dollar buyers' confidence.

No major eurozone data releases are on the agenda today, but two speeches are: Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. I do not expect surprises from Lagarde — the market has already read her stance, and she will most likely stick to cautious, general wording. I will watch Nagel more closely. If his tone proves uncompromising again, it could at least temporarily cool euro sellers even without a reversal of the overall trend.

Momentum

For the euro. The pair trades between two breakout points, and until we see reactions to today's speeches, I would not rush to bet either way. A break above 1.1386 opens the way to 1.1410 and then 1.1433, and that scenario would be confirmed if Nagel sounds softer than expected or if the dollar's hawkish tone suddenly weakens. The opposite scenario is preferable if today's Fed and BoE speakers continue in the same vein as yesterday. A break below 1.1356 would take the euro to 1.1335 and then 1.1312. While the balance of power favors the dollar, I expect this downside variant more.

For the pound. The pair also has two breakout points, and the logic is similar. A break above 1.3271 would push the pair to 1.3293 and 1.3319, and another round of hawkish signals from the BoE would aid the move. But yesterday showed the pound can quickly lose ground if the dollar gains support, so I see a break below 1.3233, with a move to 1.3206 and 1.3182, as more likely — especially if today's Fed speeches again outweigh BoE rhetoric, as happened yesterday.

Mean Reversion

For the euro. The upper reference is 1.1369, the lower 1.1351. The range is narrow, and without a significant catalyst, I would expect the pair to oscillate within it rather than break out. A push above 1.1369 followed by a quick return is logical if Lagarde sticks to bland, non-committal phrasing and gives the market no reason to move further. A test from below at 1.1351 will work if, after hawkish words from Nagel, the pair still cannot sustain below and instead reverses upward.

For the pound. The upper reference is 1.3250, the lower 1.3211. Place stops for mean-reversion trades beyond the respective boundary, since crossing that boundary turns the scenario from a return into a breakout. The pound can probe above 1.3250 and fall back if morning positivity from BoE speakers proves short-lived, as it was yesterday with Ramsden. A rebound from the lower boundary at 1.3211 will play out if the dollar fails to gain a fresh strong argument from the US consumer-confidence release.