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16.05.2012 04:53 PM
Fundamental Analysis, for May 16, 2012

 

A new chapter in the political and economic crisis affecting the old continent began with the announcement of Greek call for new elections due to the impossibility of forming a government which has led to the decline of the euro on Tuesday. This current recovery could be extended for a few hours but without any medium and long term prospective.

Technically, the EUR / USD pair movement looks alarming for those who rely on a quick recovery of the single currency. Something similar happens on the GBP / USD daily chart in which the price broke a trendline on the daily chart but is also very strong. In both cases the European currencies could continue their downward path for a long time, beyond recovery which can take place in the U.S. session on Wednesday.

The yen is looking strange as well in the last hours as it crosses EUR / JPY and GBP / JPY literally flying from one direction to another expanding its range of prices to hundreds of points.

The situation will stabilize in the near future, no doubt. But markets tend to overstate the case; the Greek crisis, after a nation of little weight in the European concert, serves as a trigger to move markets giving the impression that the euro is at risk again. Not very far from reality. Since the area of 0.80 was extended to almost 1.30, the stretch is too great to underestimate a coin and Germany as support, followed closely by powers such as France, Spain and Italy, although they are in crisis.

The news of the day calendar, which showed a diffuse 1.6% inflation in the euro area (with the block divided between rich and poor south north; I really do not know if this is good or bad), oil inventories 10:30 (you can move the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso in shape), and the FOMC Minutes at 2:00 PM, all in the United States.

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