Overview

According to the attached H4 chart, a fall in GBP/JPY extends to as low as 188.42 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside. The fall from 195.26 is viewed as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 195.86. Such a decline would target the 184.95 support and lower. We will look for a strong support around the 61.8% retracement of 174.86 to 195.86 at 182.88 to contain downside and bring a rebound. On the other hand, the uptrend from 116.83 is still in progress and would target the 61.8% retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 199.80, which is close to the 200 psychological level. The medium-term momentum is not too convincing with bearish divergence condition in the weekly MACD. We'd be cautious in the medium term topping around 200 and bring a deep correction. Meanwhile, a break of 174.86 will suggest that the trend has reversed earlier than we expect.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 190.62; (P) 192.19; (R1) 193.05;