Overview

The outlook for GBP/JPY has not changed. The price action from 180.36 is viewed as a consolidation pattern and a further rise could be seen. A strong resistance is expected at 188.28 to limit the upside and to finish the consolidation. A break of 180.36 will extend the whole fall from 195.86 and then target a test at the 174.86 key support level. The break of the medium-term trend-line support is taken as a sign of a trend reversal. It is supported by bearish divergence condition in the weekly MACD. Besides, GBP/JPY was close to the key cluster resistance of 61.8% retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 199.80, which is close to the 200 psychological level. A break of 174.86 will confirm the trend reversal and bring a deeper fall to the 38.2% retracement of 116.83 to 195.86 at 165.67. In case of another rise, we will be cautious about the strong resistance from 199.80/200.00 that will bring the reversal finally.