Analysts at the International Energy Agency (IEA) have considerably downgraded their forecast for global oil supply in 2026. According to the agency’s report for August, average daily crude oil supplies worldwide will fall by 4.3 million barrels per day (previously expected to fall by 3.7 million), leaving total supplies at 102 million barrels per day.

The main reason for the negative revision is the ongoing hostilities between the United States and Iran in the Middle East. The effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on the energy infrastructure of Persian Gulf countries have caused widespread disruptions to regional production and oil exports.

Prospects for a quick resolution to the conflict remain unclear due to deep disagreements between Washington and Tehran. A key obstacle to restoring safe navigation has been the Iranian authorities’ demand to charge fees for ships’ passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a demand the White House strongly rejects. Under these circumstances, analysts and market participants do not expect the key shipping artery to reopen soon or to be fully available for global oil supplies.