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RUB surprises traders with remarkable resilience
29-04-2020 16:46
RUB surprises traders with remarkable resilience
RUB surprises traders with remarkable resilience

The Russian currency has been weighed down by the havoc in the oil market and the domestic economy. The ruble was brutally bruised by the slump in oil prices. However, having hit multi-year lows, the ruble showed remarkable resilience and managed to regain some losses. Analysts had warned of a steeper nosedive as oil prices tumbled to the lowest levels unseen since late 1990es. However, the ruble surprised market participants with its better than expected dynamic. Moreover, some analysts make cautiously optimistic forecasts, betting on its rise in the medium term despite the ruble’s vulnerability to oil market jitters. In fact, oil has already gone through the stage of negative values and it is expected to rebound to $20-30 a barrel. Thus, the ruble is set to pick up steam. Besides, it has been propped up by a series of forex interventions. The Bank of Russia made a wise decision to buy up the national currency at its extreme lows, bearing in mind its imminent appreciation. The latest statistics on the forward exchange market shows that most traders predict the ruble’s strength. The number of long positions on the ruble is twice as big as the number of short deals: 845,000 versus 450,000. Another weighty argument for the ruble’s strength is OPEC+ pact on oil production cuts which will come into force from May. Such developments are certainly bullish for the Russian currency.            

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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