According to estimates of analysts at the Bank of America Global Research, the global economy is expected to shrink by 3.7% in 2020. Experts believe that the world’s economy will be able to escape recession next year, so they project the global GDP to grow by 5.4% in 2021. In 2022, the global economic growth could slow down to 3.9%.

In the previous outlook, the BofA experts came up with rather optimistic projections for this year. They reckoned that the global GDP would rise by 3.2% in 2020. The global economy was expected to continue its modest expansion to 3.4% in 2021. The Bank of America Global Research is one of the first think tanks to present the forecast for 2022. The analysts confirmed the forecast for a 3.9% growth in 2022. The experts warn about a fragile economic recovery at the beginning of 2021 due to the second pandemic wave. At the same time, the BofA analysts are certain that joint monetary stimulus from global central banks and widespread availability of efficient COVID-19 vaccines will contribute to an overall economic revival. Amid this economic background, global inflation is expected to remain low. Besides, most central banks are likely to keep interest rates at near zero levels.               

The US economy is now predicted to contract by an annualized rate of 3.5%, the BofA unveiled its forecasts for the US. Nevertheless, the top global economy is expected to quit recession in 2021 expanding by 4.5%. The US GDP could moderate its pace of growth to 3% in 2022. The BofA analysts foresee a sharp 7% drop for the eurozone’s economy this year. Like the US economy, the euro area will be on track to recovery in 2021 with a more robust 3.9% GDP increase. The EU GDP could ease a pace of growth to 2.7% in 2022. In a separate report, China is seen as the only economy to finish the year with modest expansion. Its GDP is projected to gain 1.8% in 2020. China’s economy is sure to maintain momentum throughout 2021 with an 8.5% solid economic advance. Its national output growth could slow down to 5.6% in 2022.     

Besides, the BofA experts estimate that the overall economy of developed countries will contract 5.4% in 2020. Their outlook for the global GDP differs from the median forecast. The consensus suggests that the global economy will rebound to 4.1% in 2021 and continue its growth to 3% in 2022. When it comes to emerging markets, the BofA analysts predict that the overall EM economy will tumble by 2.5% this year. Recession will be followed by the two years of economic growth of 6.3% and 4.6% in annual terms respectively.