After spending a couple of days trading sideways, oil resumed gains. The asset has already risen above $92 per barrel. Moreover, it has enough room for further upside.
This is mostly due to rising concerns over possible oil shortages.
Thus, yesterday's monthly report from OPEC suggests that global oil demand will rise by 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024. The cartel expects a shortfall of 3.3 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of this year amid supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Oil prices have been rising for three weeks in a row. From a technical point of view, this indicates that the asset is nearing overbought territory. With each new gain, the risk of a deep correction increases. This very fact may create new imbalances in the market. If nothing changes in the near future, with prices extending gains, their subsequent correction may come as a complete surprise to the market, thus provoking a panic.
Notably, today’s macroeconomic calendar includes important data on US inflation.
Expectations that the inflation rate in the United States will accelerate, has already led to a continued decline in gold prices. If consumer prices are in line with analyst estimates, the yellow metal may well dip below $1,900 per ounce.
Moreover, no rebound is likely to follow as market participants will shift their focus to tomorrow's meeting of the European Central Bank. The regulator is expected to raise interest rates, thus adding to downward pressure on the metal.
Meanwhile, the ruble saw a rather steep and large-scale rebound. There are two reasons for that. Firstly, this can be attributed to increasingly loud statements by top bank representatives that the Bank of Russia will leave its key interest rate unchanged on Friday. Secondly, Russian President Vladimir Putin took a soothing stance on the currency's future, indicating that the government is not planning to take emergency measures to stabilize the ruble.
A batch of statistics and news reports triggered increased speculative activity. Against this background, the quote first dipped below the 92 mark but then rose above 95 rubles per dollar. As a result, market participants ignored technical overbought and oversold signals, focusing on news releases that caused significant price fluctuations.
The stock market recovered slightly on the news. If the situation remains unchanged, the index will most likely climb to 3,200. Its further dynamic will depend solely on the outcome of the Bank of Russia Board of Directors meeting.
That's all for now. We continue to follow developments in the financial markets. Subscribe to our channel and follow the news with us. See you soon!

00:00 Introduction
00:16 Situation on the oil market
00:48 Brent
01:24 Expectations for the inflation report
01:51 Gold
02:09 USD/RUB
03:18 Russian stock market
03:36 Conclusion

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