29.01.2023 01:55 PM
What do cryptocurrency traders anticipate from the Fed, ECB, and BA?

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The price of one bitcoin coin has remained around $23,000. Since nothing has changed over the past several days, it is safe to believe that cryptocurrency traders have chosen to hold off until the Fed, ECB, and BA meetings next week. But what precisely are traders anticipating? Should all three central banks raise interest rates again? For the second time in a row, will the Fed hold off on tightening monetary policy? You need to be aware of another thing before attempting to respond to these questions.

Although Bitcoin's price has increased by 50% in the last month, this growth is meaningless. In absolute terms, the growth was only $8–10,000, which isn't much for "bitcoin." Nearly all of its prior fall twists were identical or more. Therefore, we might infer that the upward adjustment we saw globally was just a routine one. Even Bitcoin cannot go in a single direction all the time. Back to the meetings for the upcoming week. If we assume that the market is anticipating them, we can also infer that it has recently been calculating their potential outcomes. If the price of bitcoin were rising, this would have absolutely nothing to do with the likelihood that all three central banks will once again tighten monetary policy. Remember that when monetary policy is the most "soft," rates are low, and cryptocurrencies are favorable. Everything is completely the contrary now. We can only infer one thing from this, which is that the market has partially responded to a potential new slowdown in the Fed's tightening pace. If so, this element has already been taken into account, thus Wednesday or Thursday won't see any unusual behavior from bitcoin. Instead, it might begin to decline once more as the primary driver of its expansion has already been identified.

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The proximity to the level of $24,350, from where a rebound is most possible, is crucial, though. On the 24-hour TF, it is evident that bitcoin started to slow down and the collapses started to take on a weaker character once it fell below this level. Therefore, it is even possible to suppose that bitcoin is just trading between the levels of $24,350 and $15,500 in a side channel. In any event, quotes over the threshold of $24,350 might not be permitted. We continue to support a new phase of decline for the top cryptocurrency globally.

The decline to $12,426 is currently being postponed because the quotes for "bitcoin" have surpassed the threshold of $18,500 over the past 24 hours. The value of the coin is currently increasing by $24,350. Rebounding from this point can put bitcoin back on a downward trend; surpassing it can make the continuation of the "bearish" trend uncertain. We do not think that the "bullish" trend has already started, and we do not think that 2023 will see the end of bitcoin price declines. For "bitcoin," the fundamental background is still fairly complicated.

Paolo Greco,
Esperto analista di InstaForex
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