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2026.02.1906:18:27UTC+00IMF Holds China 2026 Growth Outlook, Flags Property Risks

The International Monetary Fund has left its 2026 growth forecast for China unchanged at 4.5%, while cautioning that weak domestic demand and a slowing global economy pose downside risks. In its annual 2025 review, released on Wednesday, the global lender said China’s economy grew 5% in 2025, in line with Beijing’s official target. However, it noted that the GDP deflator continued to decline, indicating persistent price pressures.

The IMF identified a “deeper-than-expected” downturn in the property market as the main domestic risk, and highlighted renewed trade tensions as the principal external threat. It also urged policymakers to reduce industrial support by cutting subsidies from 4% of GDP to 2%, to restructure the debts of unsustainable local government financing vehicles, and to introduce measures to curb future debt accumulation.

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