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2026.03.3100:50:20UTC+00New Zealand Business Mood Slumps to Near 2-Year Low

New Zealand’s ANZ Business Outlook Index fell sharply to 32.5 in March 2026 from 59.2 in February, reaching its lowest level since July 2024. The decline reflects growing corporate caution over potential fallout from the Middle East shock.

Firms’ own activity outlook dropped markedly (39.3 vs 52.6 in February), while reported past activity also weakened (17.5 vs 23.4). Forward-looking indicators deteriorated across the board: export intentions eased to 15.2 from 19.0, profit expectations declined to 19.7 from 31.8, and investment intentions fell to 14.5 from 24.8.

Labor market indicators softened as well. Employment intentions slipped to 9.4 from 22.3, and wage growth expectations moderated to 2.74% from 3.01%. At the same time, pricing intentions rose (60.3 vs 53.3), while cost pressures eased slightly but remained elevated (84.7 vs 79.4).

Credit availability turned negative, dropping to -3.3 from 7.5, underscoring tighter financial conditions. Inflation expectations inched higher, rising to 3.08% from 2.93%.

Sentiment weakened across sectors, including residential construction intentions (down to 35.3 from 41.4) and commercial construction (42.1 from 45.6), signaling a broader cooling in business confidence.

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