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Exchange Rates 26.11.2018 analysis

Currently, a number of experts fix flight from risk in the global market. Many investors are in no hurry to invest their savings due to the unstable geopolitical situation and the recent collapse in the US stock market.

The two major powers, China and the United States, cannot agree on trade issues. Italian authorities do not want to take into account the requirements of the European Commission and to maintain the planned budget deficit in 2019. The situation regarding Brexit remains unresolved, although Spain has withdrawn its claims regarding Gibraltar, voiced as part of the UK's withdrawal from the European Union.

Experts of the largest bank Morgan Stanley believe that the weakness of the market may persist until next year, as the current failure of quotations is associated not only with overproduction but also with the simultaneous completion of the ten-year bull market in Asia. Experts believe that low oil prices adversely affect the US shale market, where the number of unprofitable projects will increase if the price of WTI oil falls below $ 50 a barrel. The high-tech sector of the US market also failed to avoid disappointment, analysts sum up.

The new week will begin with a study of speeches by representatives of the Reserve Bank of Australia, as well as an assessment of preliminary indices of business activity in Japan. In the future, the focus will be on German indices of business expectations, the current situation and the business climate of the IFO. On Tuesday, November 27, we should expect data on foreign trade from New Zealand. In Europe, consumer confidence indices will be published in a number of countries.

The environment will begin with a review of the API report on US crude oil and petroleum products. Germany will provide information on the consumer confidence index, and Italy, on the prices of leading manufacturers. On Thursday, data on GDP for the third quarter from the French authorities will be known, and Spain will provide statistics on inflation. German authorities will share data on the labor market, and in the eurozone will be released reports on consumer confidence and an index of business climate and economic expectations. Friday will open with the publication of Japanese labor market statistics. Unemployment in the Land of the Rising Sun is expected to remain at 2.3%. China will publish business indexes. On the part of the eurozone states, inflation statistics are expected. Experts expect a decline in unemployment in October to 8% from 8.1%, noted in September 2018.

Last week, oil prices dropped to their lowest levels since 2017. According to experts, by the current moment, Brent's losses amount to a third of the maximum reached in October 2018. However, at the moment, the price of black gold shows a positive trend. Brent crude added 1.66% of the cost, rising to $ 60.02, and the price of WTI increased by 1.37%, to $ 51.11. The US dollar index, which demonstrates the strength of the US currency relative to a basket of other currencies, decreased slightly by 0.01%, to 96.825 percentage points (PP).

Performed by l Kolesnikova,
Analytical expert
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