GBP/USD 5M

The GBP/USD pair also traded very impressively for most of the past day, or rather just stood in one place. If we recorded 43 points of volatility for the euro, then it's around 70 points for the pound. Naturally, for the traditionally more volatile pound/dollar pair, this value is also not high. Moreover, if there were at least some hints of movement for the euro/dollar pair in the European session, then for the pound/dollar pair, the movement was clearly sideways for most of the day. It only started a tangible upward movement in the evening. Nevertheless, three trading signals were formed - all for buying. As you might guess, none of them closed with a profit, since the nearest target level was never reached. No one expected this with such volatility. Nevertheless, the price bounced three times from the level of 1.4080 and the Kijun-sen line, which were located five points from each other. Twice after the formation of the signal, the pair went up a little more than 20 points, which was enough to set the Stop Loss level to breakeven. Although you should take a closer look at the schedule. Because in fact the price bounced twice from the 1.4080 level and once from the Kijun-sen line. Therefore, it was necessary to work out all three signals. And the latter could bring the necessary profit, since the price went up by around 50 points. We do not recommend setting Take Profit, however, by the end of the day, profitable trades can be closed manually, as volatility usually drops at night. And maintaining the deal at night is problematic. There were also no major events in the UK during the day.

GBP/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, you can also clearly see how the pair failed to overcome the critical line several times, which acts as support for the upward movement along with the upward trend line. Thus, an upward movement is still the most likely. Although, from a fundamental point of view, the pound still has no reasons for growth. But we have already spoken about this a hundred times in our fundamental reviews. We recommend that you familiarize yourself with them. Thus, we continue to pay attention to the most important levels and lines: 1.4008, 1.4080 and 1.4181. Senkou Span B (1.3982) and Kijun-sen (1.4085) lines can also be signal sources. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level at breakeven when the price passes 20 points in the right direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. The UK will publish reports on the unemployment rate, the number of applications for unemployment benefits, as well as the change in average wages on Tuesday However, we do not believe that this data can somehow affect the mood of market participants or the course of trading. Only if there are serious discrepancies between forecasts and actual values. So, today we will again have to trade on pure technology and hope for an increase in volatility.

We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair.

COT report

The GBP/USD pair rose by 210 points during the last reporting week (May 4-10). Last Friday, traders got rid of the dollar because of the weak Nonfarm report, on Monday - by inertia. It was these two days that played the greatest role. Starting in January 2021, professional traders began to try to keep the main trend, since before that they constantly changed their strategy of working with the pound. The first indicator in the chart shows that the red and green lines began to move away from each other approximately in January, which indicates a new trend, which in our case is in fact the old trend of 2020. Nevertheless, the "non-commercial" group is currently raising its net position, increasing purchases of the pound, which look absolutely groundless from a fundamental point of view. But what if the pound is growing, and non-commercial traders are just aiming at making money from the exchange rate difference? During the reporting week, 15,000 Buy contracts and 6,000 Sell contracts were opened for the pound. Consequently, the net position increased by 9,000 contracts. The total number of open buy-positions is now 68,000, and Sell at 38,000. The difference is almost twofold, which indicates a moderate bullish mood of professional players. As in the case of the euro currency, we draw attention to the fact that at this time more global factors than the actions of large players, which usually set the direction of the trend, overlap the data of Commitment of Traders (COT) reports. However, COT reports now also speak in favor of continued growth in the British currency.

Explanations for the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.