empty
 
 

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD for August 11. COT report. Detailed analysis of the pair's movement and trade deals. The US inflation report provoked the dollar's collapse.
time 11.08.2022 06:58 AM
time Relevance up to, 12.08.2022 02:04 AM

EUR/USD 5M

This image is no longer relevant

The EUR/USD pair showed the strongest upward movement on Wednesday. What should be noted right away is that the pair did not demonstrate it within the framework of an upward trend, but as part of a one-time action, which was provoked by the US inflation report. We do not mean to say that the euro's growth cannot continue further. We're just saying that the euro's growth from yesterday was caused solely by one event. So whether an upward trend will now start is the big question. We still believe that there are more factors in favor of the US dollar, but still traders made it clear yesterday that they are set for long positions on the euro. And after all, the market understands that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise the rate, but they still massively got rid of the dollar. We believe this could be a tipping point for a long-term downward trend. However, it will be easy to understand from the pair's movements in the near future. There will be no important events in either the US or the EU on Thursday and Friday. If the euro/dollar pair continues to grow, it will speak volumes and is already in favor of the euro...

As for trading signals, everything on Wednesday was decided by 1 point. Quotes fell to the Kijun-sen line in the middle of the European trading session, but did not reach it by 4 points (if there were 2-3 points, it would be another matter). Such a "loss" cannot be considered a bounce, so traders should not have opened long positions here. All subsequent signals were generated after the inflation report was published, therefore, it was possible to work out only those that occurred at the time two hours after the release. All of them turned out to be correct, but did not bring much profit, since the main movement occurred in the next hour after the release.

COT report:

This image is no longer relevant

The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports on the euro over the past six months have raised a huge number of questions. The chart above clearly shows that for most of 2022 they showed an open bullish mood of professional players, but at the same time, the euro was falling at the same time. At this time, the situation has changed, but NOT in favor of the euro. If earlier the mood was bullish, and the euro was falling, now the mood is bearish and... the euro is also falling. Therefore, for the time being, we do not see any grounds for the euro's growth, because the vast majority of factors remain against it. During the reporting week, the number of long positions decreased by 6,300, while the number of shorts in the non-commercial group decreased by 9,100. Accordingly, the net position increased by about 3,000 contracts, which is a meager change. The mood of the big players remains bearish and has steadily intensified in recent weeks. From our point of view, this fact very eloquently indicates that at this time even commercial traders do not believe in the euro. The number of longs is lower than the number of shorts for non-commercial traders by 39,000. Therefore, we can state that not only the demand for the US dollar remains high, but also the demand for the euro is quite low. This may lead to a new, even greater fall of the euro. Over the past six months or a year, the euro has not been able to show even a tangible correction, not to mention something more. The highest upward movement was about 400 points. Over the past three weeks, the pair has managed to correct by 300 points.

We recommend to familiarize yourself with:

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. August 11. There is contact! US inflation began to slow down!

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. August 11. The British pound soared higher, but it has yet to outlast the UK GDP data.

Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on August 11. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions.

EUR/USD 1H

This image is no longer relevant

The pair finally broke out of the horizontal channel of 1.0120-1.0269 on the hourly timeframe. Therefore, the flat has been completed for the time being, but now it is still impossible to talk about a clear upward trend. Perhaps in the coming days it will be possible to form an upward trend line, which will help with reference points. We highlight the following levels for trading on Thursday - 1.0120, 1.0269, 1.0340-1.0366, 1.0485, 1.0579, as well as Senkou Span B (1.0195) and Kijun-sen (1 .0255). Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also secondary support and resistance levels, but no signals are formed near them. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthrough" extreme levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price has gone in the right direction for 15 points. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. No important publication or fundamental event scheduled again in the European Union and America on Thursday. Traders will again have nothing to react to, so we can watch a downward correction today.

Explanations for the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2022
Benefit from analysts’ recommendations right now
Top up trading account
Open trading account

InstaForex analytical reviews will make you fully aware of market trends! Being an InstaForex client, you are provided with a large number of free services for efficient trading.

  • Trade Wise, Win Device
    Top up your account with at least $500, sign up for the contest, and get a chance to win mobile devices.
    JOIN CONTEST
  • Ferrari from InstaForex
    Top up your account with at least $1,000
    join the contest and win Ferrari
    F8 Tributo
    JOIN CONTEST
  • Chancy Deposit
    Deposit your account with $3,000 and win $1,000
    JOIN CONTEST
  • 100% Bonus
    Your unique opportunity to get a 100% bonus on your deposit
    GET BONUS
  • 55% Bonus
    Apply for a 55% bonus on your every deposit
    GET BONUS
  • 30% Bonus
    Receive a 30% bonus every time you top up your account
    GET BONUS

Recommended Stories

Short-term technical analysis on EURUSD for November 28th, 2022.

EURUSD is trading around 1.0411 while earlier today price was making new short-term higher highs around 1.0497. but after ECB President's Lagarde speech, selling pressures have pushed the pair towards

Alexandros Yfantis 16:40 2022-11-28 UTC+2

Oil is very close to providing a new bearish signal.

Oil price is trading below $75. Price is trading on top of the green support area and is very close to breaking below it. A break below the green support

Alexandros Yfantis 16:27 2022-11-28 UTC+2

EUR/USD climbed up. Is it time to buy or to sell?

EUR/USD, 4-hour (H4) TF Euro started rising despite not having any support from important news. Technically, the situation looks like the beginning of an upward wave; however, there seems

Jozef Kovach 16:18 2022-11-28 UTC+2

Trading Signal for Gold (XAU/USD) on November 28-29, 2022: sell below $1,759 (200 EMA - overbought)

In case gold falls below 1,750 (8/8 Murray), it will be a clear signal to sell with targets at 1,722 (21 SMA). The eagle indicator is giving a negative signal

Dimitrios Zappas 16:16 2022-11-28 UTC+2

Bitcoin remains under pressure.

Bitcoin has managed to form another lower high in a sequence of lower highs over the last few days. Price has declined sharply from $16,580 to $16,150 and Bitcoin continues

Alexandros Yfantis 16:12 2022-11-28 UTC+2

GBP/USD retesting uptrend

The GBP/USD pair crashed in the last hours and now is trading at 1.2048. In the short term, it is trading somehow sideways but the bias remains bullish. It could

Ralph Shedler 16:07 2022-11-28 UTC+2

EURUSD rises sharply

The Chinese economy is slowing down and risks falling into even deeper hole amid mass protests over the zero-COVID policy. US stock indices are ready to open

Marek Petkovich 16:00 2022-11-28 UTC+2

Weekly forecast for GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/JPY, and US dollar index from November 28 (simplified wave analysis)

The pair's price may experience pressure on the resistance zone at the start of the upcoming week. Its upper border could be punctured for a brief period. Following that

Isabel Clark 15:46 2022-11-28 UTC+2

EUR/USD upward momentum: a house of cards that can collapse at your favorite moment

The current growth of EUR/USD is abnormal and unreasonable. The pair is growing on the background of an empty economic calendar and a stream of negative news from China

Irina Manzenko 15:20 2022-11-28 UTC+2

AUD/USD: COVID protests in China and a drop in Australian retail sales

Two factors account for the southern AUD/USD momentum today. First off, an unexpected finding showed that Australia's consumer spending indicator was in the danger zone. AUD also has a negative

Irina Manzenko 15:06 2022-11-28 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.