empty
 
 

Forex Analysis & Reviews: Outlook and trading signals for EUR/USD on November 29. COT report. Analysis of market situation. Euro and the rollercoaster
time 29.11.2022 07:05 AM
time Relevance up to, 30.11.2022 02:04 AM

M5 chart of EUR/USD

This image is no longer relevant

On Monday, the euro/dollar pair showed certain movements that are quite difficult to explain. It started to sharply rise early in the morning and crossed a distance of 150 pips. Then it began to fall by the same amount in the afternoon. The only fundamental background was European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's speech, which took place in the evening, so it could not have provoked such movements. Therefore, the pair has reached 1.0485, near which the previous local high was formed, and sharply fell. I believe that this pullback could be the start of the long-awaited bearish correction, which I already mentioned last week. The price may cross the critical line in the near future, which will be another technical factor for the fall. I expect the Senkou Span B line to be the first target, but the correction might be much stronger, since the euro's growth for the past few weeks was not quite logical and reasonable.

As for trading signals, yesterday's situation was almost perfect. At the beginning of the European trading session, the price broke through the level of 1.0366, after which it rose to the nearest target level of 1.0485 and rebounded from it. Therefore, traders had to open a long position first, and then - a short position. They managed to earn about 90 pips on the first position, and also the same amount on the second one since the price went back to the level of 1.0366. As a result, two deals, good profit.

COT report

This image is no longer relevant

As for Commitment of Traders (COT) reports in 2022, they reflected bullish sentiment in the first six months of the year although the euro was bearish. Then, they illustrated bearish sentiment for several months with the euro being also bearish. Currently, the net position of non-commercial traders is again bullish and increasing. Meanwhile, the euro has hardly retreated from its 20-year lows. This is due to the fact that demand for the greenback is high amid a difficult geopolitical situation in the world. Therefore, despite a rise in demand for the euro, buoyant demand for the dollar does not allow the euro to strengthen. During the reporting week, the number of long positions held by non-commercial traders rose by 7,000 and that of short positions increased by 2,000. Consequently, the net position advanced by 5,000. The euro's recent growth is gradually coming in line with the figures illustrated in the COT report. Still, the greenback may resume growth under the influence of geopolitical factors or the lack of factors for further strengthening in the euro. The green and red lines of the first indicator moved far away from each other, which may indicate the end of the uptrend. The number of long positions exceeds that of short positions by 113,000. Therefore, the net position of non-commercial traders may continue to rise further, but without triggering a similar rise in the euro. When it comes to the total number of longs and shorts across all categories of traders, there are now 39,000 more short positions (635,000 vs 596,000).

H1 chart of EUR/USD

This image is no longer relevant

Lately, EUR/USD has shown absolutely inadequate movements on the one-hour chart. It still hasn't started a downward movement even after it crossed the ascending trend line. Yesterday, the pair updated its last local high, but failed to break through the important level of 1.0485. And now it may start a strong bearish correction, which we already expected a week ago. On Tuesday, the pair may trade at the following levels: 1.0124, 1.0195, 1.0269, 1.0340-1.0366, 1.0485, 1.0579, 1.0637, as well as Senkou Span B lines (1.0207) and Kijun Sen (1.0376). Lines of the Ichimoku indicator may move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also support and resistance levels, but signals are not formed near these levels. Bounces and breakouts of the extreme levels and lines could act as signals. Don't forget about stop-loss orders, if the price covers 15 pips in the right direction. This will prevent you from losses in case of a false signal. On November 29, there are no important events planned in the EU and the U.S., but Monday showed us that the pair is ready to move in a volatile manner even without them.

What we see on the trading charts:

Price levels of support and resistance are thick red lines, near which the movement may end. They do not provide trading signals.

The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, moved to the one-hour chart from the 4-hour one. They are strong lines.

Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price bounced earlier. They provide trading signals.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts reflects the net position size of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts reflects the net position size for the non-commercial group.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2023
EURUSD
Euro vs US Dollar
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Start trade
Start trade

InstaForex analytical reviews will make you fully aware of market trends! Being an InstaForex client, you are provided with a large number of free services for efficient trading.

  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST
  • Chancy Deposit
    Deposit your account with $3,000 and get $10000 more!
    In January we raffle $10000 within the Chancy Deposit campaign!
    Get a chance to win by depositing $3,000 to a trading account. Having fulfilled this condition, you become a campaign participant.
    JOIN CONTEST
  • Trade Wise, Win Device
    Top up your account with at least $500, sign up for the contest, and get a chance to win mobile devices.
    JOIN CONTEST
  • 100% Bonus
    Your unique opportunity to get a 100% bonus on your deposit
    GET BONUS
  • 55% Bonus
    Apply for a 55% bonus on your every deposit
    GET BONUS
  • 30% Bonus
    Receive a 30% bonus every time you top up your account
    GET BONUS

Recommended Stories

GBP/USD outlook for January 27, 2023

GBP/USD managed to correct into the medium-term bull market zone amid a weak U.S. dollar, rising above 1.2130, 1.2240, through which important support levels pass: 200 EMA on the daily

Jurij Tolin 14:30 2023-01-27 UTC+2

Gold: new range ahead of US stats

Gold rallied in the short term and now is almost to reach the first upside obstacle. It's located at 1,930 at the time of writing but it's trapped within

Ralph Shedler 14:27 2023-01-27 UTC+2

GBP/USD: trading plan for North American session on January 27, 2023. Overview of morning trading. GBP/USD trades in narrow channel

When to open long positions on GBP/USD: In the first half of the day, no entry signals were generated. Let's take a look at the M5 chart

Miroslaw Bawulski 12:17 2023-01-27 UTC+2

EUR/USD: trading plan for American session on January 27. Analysis of morning trades. EUR unable to grow above 1.0889

In my morning article, I turned your attention to 1.0889 and recommended making decisions with this level in focus. Now, let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what

Miroslaw Bawulski 12:12 2023-01-27 UTC+2

Trading tips for gold

Higher-than-expected GDP growth in the US drove demand for dollar up, resulting in a correction in other assets, such as gold. Since the metal is yet to work

Andrey Shevchenko 10:40 2023-01-27 UTC+2

EUR/USD and GBP/USD: trading plan for beginners on January 27, 2023

On Thursday, the United States saw the release of the first Q4 GDP estimate. Economic growth slowed to 1.0% from 1.9%, well below the market forecast of 1.6%. These

Gven Podolsky 09:41 2023-01-27 UTC+2

GBP/USD: trading plan for European session on January 27. COT report. The pound remains in the channel, producing great signals

Yesterday, there was a great signal to enter the market. Let us take a look at the 5-minute chart to clear up the market situation. It was quiet during

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:31 2023-01-27 UTC+2

Outlook and trading signals for GBP/USD on January 27. COT report. Analysis of market situation. The pound prefers a wide flat.

GBP/USD moved mostly sideways than up or down on Thursday. If you look at the pair's movements over the past two weeks, it seems more like a flat

Paolo Greco 07:16 2023-01-27 UTC+2

Outlook and trading signals for EUR/USD on January 27. COT report. Analysis of market situation. The U.S. GDP report did not help the dollar.

EUR/USD did not show any interesting movements on Thursday. The price was still moving slightly above the critical line, and the entire movement still looks more like a flat than

Paolo Greco 07:14 2023-01-27 UTC+2

Trading plan for US dollar index on January 27, 2023

The US dollar index dropped through the 101.11 lows on Thursday, re-testing its earlier swing low of January 18, 2023, before finding bids again. The index is seen

Oscar Ton 06:34 2023-01-27 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.