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28.03.2023: USD fails to maintain further rise; outlook for USDX, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD
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While investors are waiting for new reassuring comments from regulators, demand for risk assets is growing. This is rather negative for the US dollar. Although in recent days the greenback has climbed due to risk aversion, the overall trend remains bearish.

However, revised GDP figures which are on tap this week may impact its trajectory. Therefore, the short-term prospects are rather ambiguous. The US dollar is also unable to resume a steady rise due to monetary policy expectations. The Fed will make a rate decision based on the incoming data. On Tuesday morning, the US dollar index dipped to 102.6 versus its main rivals. In the Asian session, it was moving in the downward range of 102.5-102.8.

Besides, it failed to grow following an increase in US government bonds. One should keep an eye on this strange discrepancy. If Treasuries advance higher and the US dollar declines lower, it may signal strong demand for commodity currencies.

Meanwhile, the yen retains bullish momentum. The dollar/yen pair approached 130.5 in the Asian session. The yen turned out to be the strongest currency on early Tuesday amid the weakness of the greenback. It entered the range of 130.5-131.6.

The start of the week was quite favorable for the yen. It is up today even despite rising US government bonds. One should not forget about its appeal as a safe asset. Besides, at the end of the fiscal year, Japanese foreign companies tend to convert their profits into the national currency.

It seems that the pair may tumble below 130, especially amid the comments by Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki. He said that the impact of the Swiss Credit Suisse crisis on the Japanese financial system will be very limited.

His remarks came after Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said he was carefully monitoring developments. "Japanese financial institutions have ample liquidity and capital, therefore the financial system remains stable as a whole," Kishida told a parliament session.
Commodity currencies resumed growth on Tuesday amid increased risk aversion. The Australian dollar slightly sank in the range of 0.6646-0.6697 during the Asian session. However, it managed to add gains on positive news related to the global financial sector.

Hopes that the turmoil in the banking sector may be over fueled risk appetite. Speculators also reacted positively to Australia's retail sales for February.

Nevertheless, the Australian currency is still close to multi-month lows amid the RBA’s policy reversal. Besides, after an increase to 0.6675, the Aussie retreated. It may fall lower after the release of US economic reports.

The New Zealand dollar is also trying to take advantage of a weak US dollar. In the Asian session, the kiwi/dollar pair was trading in the range of 0.6196-0.6240. The kiwi also rolled back from the monthly high of 0.6295, trading at 0.6220.

However, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may raise the rate at its next meeting on April 4. Hence, the kiwi may try to break through 0.6294, moving away from the yearly low of 0.6085.



00:00 Intro
00:26 CHINA’S INDUSTRIAL PROFITS
01:04 KRISTALINA GEORGIEVA
01:23 The banking crisis
01:58 MICHAEL S. BARR
02:48 USDX
03:58 USD/JPY
05:11 AUD/USD
05:58 NZD/USD


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