01.12.2022 01:46 PM
GBP/USD. December 1. Powell makes predictable comments but manages to send USD lower

This image is no longer relevant

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair reversed and started to grow on the hourly chart. At the moment, the British pound approached and fixed above the correctional level of 127.2% - 1.2111. Thus, the price may reach 1.2238 despite the fact that earlier it closed below the ascending trading range.

Yesterday, Jerome Powell's speech in Washington was a key event. The Fed chairman made several very important comments. First of all, he said that the Fed would start to reduce the rate of monetary policy tightening already in December. The second point is that the interest rate cap could be higher than it was estimated in September. The third statement was that a restrictive policy would take some time to implement. All these remarks have been familiar to traders for a long time. Thus, the fall of the US currency surprised but at the same time, traders were just waiting for any important event as a pretext to resume the purchases. What drives them is impossible to say for sure, we just have to accept the facts.

Now it is better to use the trading channel on the 4-hour chart as the most important reference point. It confirms traders' bullish sentiment. Notably, the COT reports continue to indicate bearish sentiment. On the hourly chart, the quotes closed below the trading range a few days ago. At the same time, these factors are not important right now, so let's keep a close eye on the trading range on the 4-hour chart. There will be a lot of important reports this week, so the US dollar may show growth today or tomorrow.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the British currency and fixed above the level of 1.2008. The pair may grow towards the Fibo level of 127.2% - 1.2250. The bullish divergence has helped to resume growth, and the trading channel still points to the traders' bullish sentiment.

COT report:

This image is no longer relevant

Last week, sentiment of non-commercial traders became less bearish. The number of speculators' long positions decreased by 3,782, and the number of short positions dropped by 674. However, sentiment of big players remains bearish, and the number of short positions is still very much higher than the number of long ones. Thus, big players continue to remain bearish on the British pound for the most part but their sentiment has been gradually changing towards bullish in recent months. At the same time, this process may take a lot of time. It has been going on for months, and the number of sales is still twice as high. The British currency might continue rising because the graphical analysis and the trading channel on the 4-hour chart support this scenario. Considering the information background, the situation is ambiguous. The growth factors for the US dollar are also may appear. Nevertheless, now we see the price increasing and this growth was expected for many months. Meanwhile, this surge has no solid grounds.

US and UK economic calendar:

UK - Manufacturing PMI (11-30 UTC).

U.S. - IUnemployment Claims (15-30 UTC).

U.S. - ISM Manufacturing PMI (17-00 UTC).

The US and UK economic calendars have three important events on Thursday. The most important is the ISM Manufacturing PMI. The influence of the information background on the market may be moderate.

GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:

One may sell the British pound with a target of 1.1883 if the price reverses to the downside near 1.2111 on the hourly chart. Now it would be better to refrain from buying GBP, as a new decline is possible in the coming days.

Samir Klishi,
Esperto analista di InstaForex
© 2007-2023
Euro vs US Dollar
Select timeframe
Start trade
Start trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
  • Chancy Deposit
    Deposit your account with $3,000 and get $8000 more!
    In March we raffle $8000 within the Chancy Deposit campaign!
    Get a chance to win by depositing $3,000 to a trading account. Having fulfilled this condition, you become a campaign participant.
  • Trade Wise, Win Device
    Top up your account with at least $500, sign up for the contest, and get a chance to win mobile devices.
  • 100% Bonus
    Your unique opportunity to get a 100% bonus on your deposit
  • 55% Bonus
    Apply for a 55% bonus on your every deposit
  • 30% Bonus
    Receive a 30% bonus every time you top up your account

Recommended Stories

EUR/USD. 28 marzo. De Cos, BCE: il regolatore monitorerà più da vicino le informazioni in arrivo

Buongiorno, gentili trader! Lunedì la coppia EUR/USD è rimbalzata dal livello 1,0750 e ha continuato la sua crescita verso il livello di correzione del 200,0%, 1,0861. Il rimbalzo delle quotazioni

Samir Klishi 10:38 2023-03-28 UTC+2

GBP/USD. 28 marzo. Andrew Bailey non ha detto niente di interessante

Buongiorno, gentili trader! Sul grafico orario, lunedì la coppia GBP/USD ha continuato la sua crescita e oggi si è avvicinata al livello di 1,2342. Il rimbalzo delle quotazioni da questo

Samir Klishi 10:31 2023-03-28 UTC+2

XAU/USD sta sviluppando uno slancio ribassista. Previsione per il 27 marzo 2023

La coppia XAU/USD sta attualmente sviluppando uno slancio ribassista. Il prezzo dovrebbe scendere verso il 1° livello di supporto a 1.948. Se la coppia continua a scendere, potrebbe testare

Dean Leo 09:48 2023-03-27 UTC+2

BTC/USD: dovrebbe scendere al livello di supporto. Previsione per il 27 marzo 2023

Secondo il grafico giornaliero, la coppia BTC/USD è in ribasso. È previsto un calo al 1° livello di supporto. In generale, lo slancio del bitcoin rispetto al dollaro

Dean Leo 09:45 2023-03-27 UTC+2

BTC/USD, D1: possibile inversione ribassista. Previsione per il 14 marzo 2023

Attualmente, la coppia BTC/USD sta testando il livello di resistenza principale a 1,674, che è il massimo oscillante. Un'inversione da qui potrebbe spingere le quotazioni verso 1,357

Dean Leo 09:01 2023-03-14 UTC+2

USD/CHF, D1: atteso rimbalzo rialzista. Previsione per il 14 marzo 2023

Attualmente la coppia USD/CHF sta testando il livello di supporto principale di 0,9083 corrispondente al livello swing low. Un rimbalzo da qui potrebbe portare ad un aumento delle quotazioni fino

Dean Leo 09:01 2023-03-14 UTC+2

EUR/JPY, H4 | È prevista l'inversione di prezzo dal livello di resistenza principale

Il prezzo si sta spostando verso la resistenza di 1,4639, che è anche un massimo locale. L'inversione da questo segno potrebbe portare a un calo del prezzo al livello

Dean Leo 07:26 2023-03-10 UTC+2

EUR/CHF, H4 | Rottura ribassista possibile

Il prezzo ha sfondato il livello di supporto chiave di 0,9917, che ora si è trasformato in resistenza, provocando una caduta al livello di take-profit target di 0,9851

Dean Leo 07:26 2023-03-10 UTC+2

EUR/USD e GBP/USD 9 marzo: analisi tecnica della situazione

Il giorno prima c'è stato un altro cambiamento nelle priorità giornaliere, a causa del quale la coppia si è trovata sotto il supporto mensile (1,0579), nella zona ribassista relativa alla

Evangelos Poulakis 09:57 2023-03-09 UTC+2

Analisi tecnica settimanale: coppia di valute EUR/USD dal 6 all'11 marzo

La scorsa settimana, la coppia, salendo, ha testato 21 linee medie semplici a 1,0688 (linea tratteggiata nera) ed è scesa, chiudendo la candela settimanale a 1,0634. Lavoro al rialzo possibile

Stefan Doll 09:25 2023-03-06 UTC+2
In questo momento non potete parlare al telefono?
Ponete la vostra domanda nella chat.