06.02.2023 04:32 AM
Forecast for EUR/USD on February 6, 2023

Friday was spent assessing the problem we had in the morning. Why did the dollar index rise? Some believe that market participants have reconsidered how much they trust the Federal Reserve's words and that they don't see rate hikes coming to an end anytime soon, as the American economy shows good growth through the employment indicators. Nonfarm payrolls added 517,000 jobs in January against expectations of 185,000, the December figure was revised upward by 37,000. Unemployment fell from 3.5% to 3.4% with the economically active population rising from 62.3% to 62.4%. Average wages rose 0.3%. In addition, the services PMI rose from 49.2 to 55.2.

But we don't quite share the same opinion. The U.S. base rate remains and will remain the highest (4.75%) even if the world central banks agree to wind up the cycle of rate hikes. The reason for such a sharp U.S. dollar reversal (read: falling markets) is due to the difference in economic growth between the U.S. and Europe, although some parameters in the U.S. are formally worse than in Europe (e.g., industrial production). As for the fall of the stock market, it is falling for several reasons: the base rate has become relatively high, which pressures the overcredited business and investors only needed a reason to leave such a risk, inflation is still unsteady, institutional investors can not buy the stock market due to lack of external support from the Fed (QE), individuals are leaving the stock market, as they have to spend on current life the financial backing they received back in the days of Covid. Also, investors are already ready to face the new global crisis based on numerous signs of it, including such a funny one as the "cardboard box index".

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The euro lost 113 pips on Friday, falling just short of the target support at 1.0758/87. Right below it is the MACD line. Consolidating under the range and the MACD line will confirm the reversal to a medium-term decline. You can take a break both today and tomorrow following the sharp movements on Thursday and Friday.

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On the four-hour chart, the price has settled and is moving below the balance and MACD indicator lines, the Marlin oscillator has relatively deeply penetrated the area of the downtrend, it can still fall further, but in order to brace for a breakthrough of 1.0758, it is better to unload a bit and rise.

Laurie Bailey,
Esperto analista di InstaForex
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