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09.09.2021 08:38 AM
Breaking forecast for GBP/USD, 09.09.2021

Today, the future trajectory of the euro and other currencies depends on the ECB's decision. Many analysts are certain that the US dollar may develop a rally following the results of today's meeting. There is practically no doubt that the parameters of monetary policy will remain unchanged. However, to cap the soaring eurozone inflation, the central bank needs to reduce the quantitative easing program and raise the interest rate. At least, such a plan of action is proposed in the official documents of the regulator. Importantly, the US Federal Reserve resorted to such measures in a similar situation. However, the ECB is extremely hesitant, which causes concern aiming market participants. The fact is that the economic situation may worsen even more and the regulator will have no choice but to quickly start tightening monetary policy. If this is the case, it is likely to do without any warning.

Therefore, investors are likely to suffer significant losses. That is why the Fed is so cautious when making announcements on its decision to close the QE program and raise the benchmark rate. The watchdog also commented on the possibility of key rate-hiking earlier. However, the ECB seems to ignore the current situation. The reason for such behavior is the regulator's concerns about the pace of economic growth, as well as the high unemployment rate. Indeed, the overall macroeconomic situation in Europe is noticeably worse than in the United States. Thus, a tightening of monetary policy could undermine the economic recovery. Economists believe that if the regulator does not take steps, the situation may aggravate even more and it will be difficult to offset negative consequences. For this reason, the US dollar looks more attractive for traders than the euro.

ECB Interest Rate:

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The downward movement from the resistance level of 1.3880 pushed the quote back to 1.3750 where there was a slight price stagnation. The Fibonacci level of 23.6 acts as a support. However, taking into account the recovery relative to the correction, bears still have a chance to send the pair down.

The RSI technical indicator is above the 30 line, pointing that the US dollar is not oversold.

On the daily chart, we can see a recovery movement after the recent correction.

Outlook

Consolidation of the price below the Fibonacci level of 23.6-1.3750 may lead to a gradual decline in the quote. Traders are expecting a complete recovery of the price as a part of a correction.

The complex indicator analysis gives short signals on the short term and intraday charts because of the price retreatment from the resistance level of 1.3880.

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Dean Leo,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2024
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