The US dollar, which usually retreats amid the dovish comments, rose to 104.5. In the Asian session, it was rather volatile, moving in a wide range of 104.1-104.5.
There are several reasons for its upward movement. However, the main drivers are uncertainty over the Fed’s monetary policy and the US debt ceiling approval. Investors are cautious because of contradictory factors accumulated at the end of the week.

These are the perfect conditions for safe-haven assets. The US dollar advanced in the morning. Yet, the sentiment could change very quickly. Fresh macro stats may affect its trajectory, forcing the US currency to drop.

The strong US dollar made other currencies change their movements. The dollar/yen pair resumed growth for the first time in the last four days. In the Asian session, bulls pushed it to the intraday low of 139.5. The price grew above 139.9 due to increased demand.

Many technical indicators signal the continuation of the bullish trend. In the morning, the pair was moving in the range of 138.9–139.9. Nevertheless, the 140 level and the annual high of 140.45 may somewhat limit the upside potential.

As seen on the chart, the nearest support for bears is also located at the level of 139. It might be difficult for the yen to break through this level. Analysts believe that the pair is unlikely to drop below 138.3 in the near future.

The Australian dollar rebounded in the morning. At the start of the Asian session, the AUD/USD pair climbed to 0.6520. Yet, it had to retreat later due to a stronger US dollar. It was trading in the price corridor of 0.6484–0.6522.

The pair was hovering near 0.6500, which was the support level of December 20, 2022. However, in case of positive news for the US dollar, the aussie may aim at the resistance level of 0.6455.

Analysts still see some upside potential for the Australian dollar. Today, its price advanced mainly amid upbeat data from China. The Caixin Manufacturing Index expanded, signaling economic growth.

The aussie recovered amid such news. In May, the index unexpectedly swung to growth from decline, reaching 50.9%. It somewhat smoothed out the negative impact of previous data on the Chinese economy.

The New Zealand dollar kicked off Thursday with a fall within the range of 0.5990-0.6028 The kiwi will hardly be able to rise versus the US dollar today. The further trajectory of the kiwi from 0.6004 will depend on the US dollar’s movements.


00:00 Intro
00:25 US
01:46 Patrick T. Harker (Philadelphia Fed) and Philip Jefferson
02:17 CME FEDWATCH TOOL
03:07 USDX
03:56 USD/JPY
05:01 AUD/USD
05:42 CHINA CAIXIN MANUFACTURING PMI INDEX
06:11 NZD/USD

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