Today, traders are likely to rely on fresh macroeconomic reports, unlike previous trading days. Preliminary estimates on the eurozone services PMI turned out to be a bit weaker than expected. The indicator increased to 50.7 points from 49.8 points instead of rising to 50.8 points. In any case, the indicator climbed above the 50-point threshold that separates contraction from expansion. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI should have advanced to 48.5 points from 47.8 points. In fact, it grew to 48.8 points. As a result, the composite PMI managed to advance to 50.2 points from 49.3 points, whereas economists had expected a smaller rise to 50.0 points. Thus, the data slightly exceeded the forecast, thus allowing the euro to resume gaining in value after short-lived stagnation. However, just 30 minutes later, the market sentiment altered and the euro started falling together with the pound sterling. All this boosted the US dollar. The currency was also supported by preliminary data on UK business activity. Thus, the manufacturing PMI increased to 46.7 points from 45.3 points, while economists had foreseen an increase to 46.0 points. However, the services PMI slumped to 48.0 points instead of climbing to 50.0 points from 49.9 points. Against the backdrop, the composite PMI slid to 47.8 points from 49.0 points. Analysts had expected a rise to 49.6 points. Nevertheless, both the euro and the pound sterling have a chance to recover to at least the levels recorded early today. However, this will become possible if forecasts for the US business activity meet reality. The manufacturing PMI is causing the most concerns since it may slump to 45.0 points. However, this could be offset by the services PMI that may advance to 45.0 points. That is why the composite PMI may also grow, though very insignificantly. Notably, a tumble in the US manufacturing PMI and sentiment of most traders will hardly allow the greenback to show a considerable increase. Since in the eurozone, the data is more positive, the US dollar is likely to go on falling despite the expected data. Ahead of the publication of the data from the US, we see that the euro/dollar pair bounced after it reached a new local high of the uptrend located at 1.0927. Although the volume of long positions dropped, the market sentiment remained bullish. To resume growing, the quote should climb above 1.0900 on the four-hour chart. In this case, we may see a new rise in the volume of long positions. This, in turn, may push the price to a new local high. However, the price may go on falling if it fixes below 1.0840. In this case, the pair may slide to 1.0800. Meanwhile, the pound/dollar pair has been hovering within the range of 1.2300/1.2440 for the third day in a row. This may point to an accumulation process. Notably, the existing stagnation occurred at the peak of the uptrend.
Under the current conditions, traders should apply a strategy based on the outgoing impulse. A breakout of either limit will point to a further direction of the price. A downward movement will become possible if the price settles below 1.2300 on the four-hour chart. This action may lead to a full-scale correction. The upward scenario will be considered by traders if the price consolidates above 1.2450 on the four-hour chart. This will prove the prolongation of the upward cycle.

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00:00 INTRO
00:10 FLASH EUROZONE PMI
00:57 QUOTES
01:25 FLASH UK PMI
02:03 USA
02:40 US DOLLAR
03:00 EUR | USD
03:48 GBP | USD