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25.01.2023: USD to go on falling? Outlook for EUR/USD and GBP/USD
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A significant decline in the yield of US treasuries proved that the next key interest rate hike will be the last one in the cycle. After that, the Fed is likely to start preparing for the monetary policy loosening.
That is why the US dollar dropped, ignoring the fact that preliminary data on the US business activity was better than anticipated. Although the market is quite stable, we can see a slight downward movement in both the euro and the pound sterling. The fact is that their yesterday’s growth was mainly caused by assumptions and not facts. Meanwhile, the macroeconomic data points to an increase in the US dollar.
However, the situation may change at the beginning of the US trade. A lot will depend on the leading mass media companies. If the number of publications and pieces of news devoted to an inevitable cut in the Fed’s key rate continues to grow, the greenback may lose in value. At the same time, the euro and the pound sterling may reach new local highs.

Now, we see that the number of long positions on the euro resumed rising. As a result, the quote surpassed 1.0900, which points to the bullish sentiment among traders.
To show another jump, the pair should hit a new local high of the uptrend. In other words, it should consolidate above 1.0927. In this case, the euro may climb to the psychological level of 1.1000.
The alternative scenario presupposes a bounce and a return to the range of 1.0840/1.0880.

Meanwhile, the pound/dollar pair showed activity. At first, the quote dropped below 1.2300 and then, recouped all the losses.
Under the current conditions, the price should settle below 1.2300 for a long time so that a bounce could turn into a full-scale downward correction. Otherwise, the price may resume hovering within the channel of 1.2300/1.2440.

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00:00 INTRO
00:17 US dollar dropped
00:50 The US trade
01:17 EUR/USD
01:56 GBP/USD
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