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Exchange Rates 21.02.2020 analysis

Hello, traders! Graphical analysis on the 4 charts warns of the approaching reversal of the pair in favor of the European currency. In this review, I suggest analyzing the report on Commitments of Traders to understand what is happening now in the market and what sentiments prevail among the major players.

Exchange Rates 21.02.2020 analysis

So, the first thing I would like to draw to your attention is the completely different moods in the non-commercial and commercial categories in the part of the changes table. Let me remind you that non-commercial is large market players who trade currency for a profit and commercial is a variety of companies that buy currency not for profit due to exchange rate differences. So, in the last three weeks before February 11, non-commercial actively increased short positions and reduced long positions. At the same time, the commercial category was increasing its long positions, getting rid of short positions. First, this means that sooner or later the non-commercial category will close positions to lock in profits. In contrast to the commercial category, which uses its futures and options for a particular currency to hedge against future strong price changes. It is the reset of short positions by the first category that will mean a reversal of the trend in favor of the euro.

Let's also pay attention to the upper part of the table. Reflecting the total number of positions for different categories of players. In the last report dated February 11, the non-commercial category was dominated by short positions with a strong margin, while the commercial category was dominated by long positions. However, the total number of long positions was less than short: 575403 contracts against 607290. The gap in comparison with the previous month did not increase much, so the euro continued to fall at the usual pace. A new COT report for February 18 will be released today, which is likely to show a reduction in the total number of short positions.


Non-commercial - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, and large investors.

Commercial - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency to ensure current activities or export-import operations.

Non-reportable position - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Performed by Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert
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