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Research: Aud Looks Vulnerable


Quotes from Societe Generale Cross Asset Research:

-The RBA cut rates by 50bp to 3.75%, further than expected and taking the rates market by surprise. The chart of AUD/USD  vs. the 2-yr rate differential consequently looks very negative for AUD, at its tightest spread since last December.

-The rationale for the move was that with inflation lower, there is scope to support domestic demand, and given that domestic lending rates have edged higher relative to policy rates in recent months, 50bp was needed to make sure  monetary conditions were more accommodative than three months ago. That doesn't sound terribly dovish on the surface but this is a domestically-inspired move.

-If domestic inflation and demand conditions now warrant easier policy, any further loss of regional momentum will increase the desire to see a softer currency. AUD looks vulnerable.

Uverejnené: 2012-05-01 09:08:00 UTC+00


See also: Current support and resistance levels
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
GBP/JPY
EUR/CHF
AUD/USD
May 23 at 10:59 UTC