Market Roundup
- EU, ECB, IMF agree on terms of debt deal to put to Greece
- US Factory Orders MM Apr -0.4%, (consensus 0%, previous 2.2%)
- US Non-def Cap Ex-Air R MM Apr -0.3%, (previous 1%)
- Brazil Industrial Output MM Apr -1.2%, (consensus -1.4%, previous -0.7%), weakness pervades
- Eurogroup's Dijsselbloem: Greek payment deal not expected this week
- Fed's Brainard Econ Slowdown may be more significant than expected, international issues weak exports could weigh heavily on pace of recovery
- Brainard says compromise over Greece still possible
- Fonterra's GDT Price Index dipped 4.3 percent, with an avg selling price of USD 2,412/tonne
- FIFA's Blatter resigns, extraordinary election for new president will be held as rapidly as possible
- ECB raises emergency funding (ELA) cap for Greek banks by 500 mln Eur to 80.7 bln Eur - banking source
- South Africa'S central bank says case for interest rate cuts has evapourated
Economic Data Ahead
- (1930 ET/ 2330 GMT) Australia AIG Services Index May (previous 49.7)
- (2130 ET/ 0130 GMT) Australia GDP QQ Q1 (consensus 0.7%, previous 0.5%)
- (2130 ET/ 0130 GMT) Australia GDP YY Q1 (consensus 2.1%, previous 2.5%)
- (2130 ET/ 0130 GMT) Australia GDP Final Cons Q1 (previous 0.8%)
- (2130 ET/ 0130 GMT) Australia GDP Capital Exp Q1 (previous 0.3%)
- (2130 ET/ 0130 GMT) Australia GDP Chain Price Idx Q1 (previous -0.2%)
- (2145 ET/ 0145 GMT) China HSBC Svcs PMI May (previous 52.9)
Key Events Ahead
- --:-- Japan BOJ board member Sayuri Shirai speaks at a meeting with business leaders
FX Recap
EUR/USD: Hopes of an imminent deal between Greece and its international lenders boosted EUR/USD. The pair revisited daily highs but faltered once again ahead of the 1.1200 psychological level during the American afternoon. The pair is trading sideways in 1.1110-1.1190 range over the last hours. Investors await for news coming from Eurogroup/Greece meeting and ECB monetary policy meet tomorrow. At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1150, up 2.07% on the day. Resistances are at 1.1200 (psychological level) and 1.1325 (May 13 high). Immediate supports are seen at 1.0915 (daily low) and 1.0885 (Jun 1 low). Option expiries for Wednesday 03 June: 1.1000 (907M), 1.1100 (584M), 1.1275 (803M), 1.1300 (1.2BLN)
USD/CHF recent slide sent the price back below the daily 20-SMA for the first time since mid May. The pair rebounded at 0.9310 and bounced to the upside, but the recovery was short lived. USD/CHF was capped by the 0.9350 area from where it resumed the decline and dropped back toward 0.9300, reaching a fresh 12-day low at 0.9307. At the time of writing the pair is trading at 0.9331, with immediate support at 0.9300. Below there supports are located at 0.9285 (May 22 low), 0.9250 and 0.9200. On the upside, resistance might lie at 0.9350, 0.9405 (May 20 high) and 0.9480/85.
AUD/USD was boosted initially by a stronger aussie and then by a decline of the US dollar across the board. The pair moved all day with an upside bias to post fresh daily high at 0.7789, hitting the highest level in a week. AUD/USD is up more than 2% on the day. Tomorrow, GDP data from Australia will be released. Resistances for the pair are 0.7708 (daily high), 0.7760 (May 28 high) and then 0.7810 (100-day SMA). While supports are seen at 0.7598 (Jun 1 low), 0.7570 (Apr 15 low) and 0.7552 (Apr 13 low). Option expiries for Wednesday 03 June: 0.7650 (454M), 0.7700 (296M), 0.7800 (462M)
GBP/USD/ staged a nice rally at the beginning of the New York session amid broad USD weakness. But the British Pound's rally against the US Dollar from 1.5215 was capped after 150 pips at 1.5365 where the GBP/USD was sold again. Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.5344, up 0.94% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.5370 and low at 1.5180. Supports are seen at 1.5365, 1.5330, 1.5300 and 1.5280. To the upside, resistances are at 1.5365, 1.5380 and 1.5430.
USD/CAD: Greenback fell across the board on Tuesday, dragging USD/CAD back to sub-1.2400 levels. Poor data collaborated with the downbeat sentiment around the USD, already hurt by hopes of a EU-Greece deal. Currently the pair is trading at 1.2396 down 0.99% on the day. Immediate support is seen at 1.2378 (50% of 1.2835-1.1920) followed by 1.2368 (low Jun 2) and finally 1.2367 (Tenkan Sen). On the flipside resistances are at 1.2537 (high Jun 2), 1.2538 (high May 28) and 1.2567 (high Jun 1). Option expiries for Wednesday 03 June: 1.2460 (330M), 1.2550 (385M)
