Market Roundup
- SF Fed econ paper says Q1 GDP was 1.8% after SA fix
- Greece's Tsipras Greece deal with lenders doesn't only concern Greece but whole of EZ
- Greece's TO Vima (newspaper) says EU proposes compromise in debt deal negotiations
- EU commission says not aware of any new Juncker proposal for Greece with lower primary surplus targets
- Greece's Varoufakis says Greece proposed ESM pay maturing Greek bonds held by ECB, Athens can then pay back ESM at later date
- US NAHB Housing Market Index May 54, (consensus 57, previous 56), slight miss but remains expansionary
- Argentina Q1 unemployment rate increase to 7.1 % vs previous 6.90 %
- Peru'S cenbank sells $73 mln, Sol weakens to end bidding at 3.151 per dollar
- IMF says Italy privatisation progress disappointing, should be more ambitious
- IMF urges Italy to jump start market for banks' bad loans, says state-backed vehicle could help
Economic Data Ahead
- (1845 ET/ 2245 GMT) NewZealand Producer Prices - Inputs QQ Q1 -0.7%, (consensus -0.45%, previous -0.4%)
- (1845 ET/ 2245 GMT) NewZealand PPI Output Q1 0%, (consensus 0.07%, previous -0.1%)
Key Events Ahead
- (2130 ET/ 0130 GMT) Australia Reserve Bank of Australia will publish the minutes of May policy meeting
FX Recap
USD/JPY printed fresh highs for the day as the dollar received a mild boost during the American afternoon. USD/JPY has climbed about 80 pips throughout the day to pushed through the 120 mark erasing Friday's losses. At time of writing, USD/JPY is trading at 119.99, up 0.51% on the day, having hit a peak of 120.02. Immediate resistances are seen 120. and 120.27 (May 12 high). On the flipside supports could be found at 119.30 (100-day SMA), 119.13 (May 15 low) and 118.88 (May 14 low). Focus now on Wednesday's FOMC minutes and Friday's US consumer price index data as investors continue to assess prospects of a Fed rate hike. Stand out expiries this week: 120.00 Tues (542M), Wed (700M), Fri (2BLN)
GBP/USD: Greenback started the week on a positive tone across the board. GBP/USD hit a new daily low during the American session at 1.5635, the lowest level since Wednesday. The pair found support above May 13 lows that lie at 1.5630. A break lower could open the doors for a fall toward 1.5600. Central bank minutes and inflation data up tomorrow from the UK and the US will be in focus. Stand out expiries this week: Wed's 1.5600 (501m), 1.5690 (413m)
EUR/USD is printing fresh intraday lows around 1.1310/05 as selling pressure mounts. Spot is challenging the key support at 1.1300 against the backdrop of rising vulnerability on the Greek situation. Currently pair is trading at 1.1310 down 1.23% on the day. Immediate hurdle is at 1.1300 (psychological level) ahead of 1.1294 (10-d MA) and then 1.1202 (low May 13). On the flip side, supports are at 1.1451 (high May 18), 1.1468 (high May 15) and 1.1486 (high Feb 6). Stand out expiries this week: Thursday at 1.15 (EUR 3.2bln). Friday 1.1400 (2.2bln)
USD/CAD was propped up by an upbeat dollar. The pair not only regained the 1.2100 handle but also advanced to fresh 2-week peaks around 1.2160. US housing sector will remain in the limelight as Housing Starts (1.01 M exp.) and Building Permits (1.072 M) are due preceding the speech by Governor S.Poloz. The pair is now up 1.08% at 1.2144 with immediate resistance at 1.2165 (high May 18) followed by 1.2205 (high May 1) and then 1.2305 (high Apr 21). Supports are seen at 1.2005 (low May 18), 1.1982 (low May 15) then 1.1920 (low May 14).
EUR/GBP is falling for the first time after recording gains during the previous four trading days. The pair broke to the downside hitting a fresh daily low at 0.7230 as the euro failed to hold to gains and retreated. At the time of writing the pair trades at 0.7240, down 35 pips from Friday's closing price. On the upside, immediate resistance could be located at 0.7255, 0.7280/85 (May 15, 18 high) and 0.7315. Support levels might lie at 0.7230 (daily low), 0.7200 and 0.7185.
